Economist Surjit Bhalla’s latest analysis of BRICS has put the spotlight on how much of the group’s economic rise is actually coming from China.
Bhalla’s calculations show that BRICS’ share of global income increased from 21.9% in 2011 to 28.9% in 2025. But if China is removed, the share of the other 10 members fell from 11.9% to 11.5%. China alone accounted for 72% of the increase in BRICS’ income over the period, according to his analysis.
His numbers also show China’s growing weight within the group. China’s share of BRICS income rose from 45.6% in 2011 to 60.2% in 2025. Among the five long-standing members, its share increased from 54.1% to 68.9%.
But look at the more recent five-year period, and the picture changes somewhat
INDIA’S INCOME HAS GROWN FASTER
Bhalla uses the World Bank’s GNI per capita, Atlas method. GNI, or gross national income, measures the total income earned by a country’s residents and businesses, including income from abroad. It differs from GDP, which measures economic activity within a country’s borders.
For his calculation, Bhalla multiplies GNI per capita by population to arrive at aggregate income.
On that basis, India’s GNI was about $2.67 trillion in 2020. By 2025, it had risen to around $4.04 trillion. That is an increase of about 52% in five years.
China’s GNI, using the same measure, increased from about $15.15 trillion in 2020 to $20.02 trillion in 2025. That works out to growth of roughly 32%.
So, between 2020 and 2025, India’s aggregate GNI grew about 20 percentage points faster than China’s.
This is not the same as saying India’s economy is now close to China’s.
China’s GNI was still almost five times India’s in 2025.
And because China started from a much larger base, it added much more to its income in absolute terms. China’s GNI increased by about $4.86 trillion between 2020 and 2025, compared with roughly $1.37 trillion for India.
So the distinction is important. India has grown faster, but China remains the much larger contributor in absolute terms.
INDIA HAS NARROWED THE GAP, BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY
The relative gap has nevertheless changed.
In 2020, India’s aggregate GNI was around 18% of China’s. By 2025, it was about 20%.
That is a small shift, but it offers a useful way of looking at the changing economic balance inside BRICS
