India’s shipments to the United States are rising despite tariff-related disruptions. Simultaneously, exports to China are growing even faster, but the trade deficit with Beijing continues to widen.

So, if India is selling more goods to both countries, why is one relationship proving resilient while the other is adding to the country’s trade imbalance?

The latest figures offer a clue. India’s merchandise exports to the US reached $50.81 billion during April-September 2026, up from $45.73 billion a year earlier. This is an increase of about 11.1 per cent, according to the latest trade figures reported by the government.

China presents a different picture. India’s exports to the neighbouring country surged 40.7 per cent to $19.26 billion during January-September 2026. But imports from China rose 23.3 per cent to $125.19 billion. The result was a trade deficit of $105.93 billion, up 20.7 per cent from a year earlier.

India-US Trade: Exports Grow Despite Tariff Pressures

The rise in exports to the US is significant because Indian businesses have faced uncertainty over American trade policy. The first phase of an India-US trade deal is nearing completion, but negotiations have involved questions about tariff rates and whether Indian exporters will enjoy an advantage over competitors such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia.

According to a Reuters report, the proposed deal has reduced the announced tariff burden from the earlier 50 per cent level to 18 per cent, although finalisation remained pending. Now, the latest export numbers suggest that US demand for Indian goods has not disappeared despite tariffs. But they do not, by themselves, prove that tariffs have had little impact. Exports might have grown even faster without the additional costs, while some businesses could have absorbed lower margins to retain customers.

India’s overall merchandise exports rose 18.51 per cent to $259.89 billion during April-September 2026-27, compared with $219.30 billion in the corresponding period a year earlier. This was faster than the 11.1 per cent growth in exports to the US. In other words, US-bound shipments are increasing, but they are growing more slowly than India’s merchandise exports as a whole.

Electronics, petroleum products, chemicals and engineering goods have helped drive the wider export expansion. Electronics exports alone rose 70.44 per cent year on year to $5.31 billion in September, according to the Ministry of Commerce.