Chief economists across the world expect the global economic growth to weaken over the next one year, but India stands out as a geography with the strongest growth expectations, a new WEF survey showed on Thursday.
In its latest Chief Economists’ Outlook, the World Economic Forum (WEF) said nearly nine in ten chief economists surveyed expect global growth to weaken over the coming year, though only 13 per cent think there could be a global recession.
According to the survey, 94 per cent expected global inflation to rise due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz driving up energy and food costs and disrupting supply chains.
The survey showed a reversal of the cautious optimism seen at the start of the
the year, as conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz fuel concerns over a major global economic shock.
Chief economists ranked the current closure duration of the Strait of Hormuz as significantly more disruptive than last year’s tariff turmoil.
If the closure persists in the second half of the year, they expect its impact could approach the severity of the COVID-19 crisis, compounding effects across global supply chains, energy and food costs.
“Only months ago, the Chief Economists community was cautiously optimistic. The conflict in the Middle East changed that, and the economic scarring from the situation thus far is already expected to last into the months ahead,” WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi said.
The longer the disruption lasts, the heavier the long-term cost for those who can least afford it,” she added.
The survey said the crisis is expected to hit the Middle East and North Africa region the hardest.
By contrast, India and the United States are expected to remain relatively resilient, supported by domestic demand and investment, the WEF said.
Specifically about India, it said the
country’s growth prospects continue to stand out.
“Of the chief economists surveyed, 52 per cent expect strong or very strong growth in the year ahead, making India the geography with the strongest growth expectations in the survey,” it said.
Early 2026 reporting pointed to a broader opening in trade policy and to a policy push behind infrastructure, technology and domestic capacity-building, according to the WEF.
