While loan borrowers and fixed deposit (FD) investors are widely expecting a status quo on benchmark interest rates, the market’s focus will also be on the RBI’s inflation and GDP forecasts, as well as its assessment of the rupee amid heightened global uncertainty.
The June policy review comes against the backdrop of prolonged tensions in West Asia, rising crude oil and gas prices, supply-chain disruptions and a sharp depreciation in the rupee, all of which have increased concerns over
inflation and growth.
Meanwhile, a Moneycontrol poll of 16 economists, fixed-income heads and treasury chiefs found that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to keep benchmark interest rates unchanged at this week’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, despite growing inflationary risks, a weakening rupee and elevated Brent crude oil prices.
The RBI’s June 2026 MPC meeting comes amid heightened uncertainty due to global conflicts, rising crude prices, sharp rupee depreciation, and monsoon risks. While CPI inflation remains benign at 3.48%, surging WPI and fuel costs signal emerging pressures. Growth remains strong but is facing headwinds, with the FY27 outlook softening. Bond yields and risk premia have risen, reflecting market caution. Against this backdrop, while markets are pricing in potential rate hikes ahead, the RBI is likely…
