The Finance Ministry will refrain from issuing separate GDP growth and inflation projections for FY2026–27 and instead work with the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) estimates, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran said on June 5, signalling confidence in the central bank’s assessment even as global oil and weather-related risks cloud the outlook.
Speaking after the release of provisional annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates and fourth-quarter (Q4) GDP data for FY2025–26, Nageswaran said the RBI’s assessment of growth and inflation for FY2026–27 appeared to be “fair estimates” and there was no need to “second guess” them.
“I will refrain from giving GDP, inflation estimates for FY27 from the Ministry of Finance and will work on the basis of estimates given by RBI,” Nageswaran said at the press conference.
“RBI’s assessment of
of GDP, inflation in FY27 seem fair estimates, don’t see need to second guess,” he added.
The RBI, in its June monetary policy review, lowered its real GDP growth forecast for FY2026–27 to 6.6 percent from 6.9 percent projected earlier, citing risks from elevated crude oil prices, supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions, and weaker monsoon prospects. At the same time, the central bank raised its Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation projection for FY2026–27 to 5.1 percent from 4…
The comments come after official data showed India’s real GDP growth accelerated to 7.7 percent in FY2025–26 from 7.1 percent in FY2024–25, providing what the CEA described as a “strong starting point” for the economy despite emerging external risks.
“Solid growth in FY26 provides a strong starting point amid emerging external risks,” Nageswaran said.
Above 7% GDP in FY28
The Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) said India’s growth trajectory could return to above 7 percent in FY28 even if
economic expansion moderates below that level in FY27, citing macroeconomic stability measures, supply-side interventions and expected gains from trade agreements.
“Even if the growth were to slip below 7 percent as the RBI forecast suggests, these macro stability measures and supply assurances will bring us back to the 7 percent plus growth track in FY28 or as soon as external conditions permit,” the CEA said, indicating confidence that the slowdown, if any, would be temporary and driven large…
The CEA also pointed to improving policy certainty through trade agreements, saying India could begin seeing gains from recently negotiated pacts during the current financial year. “In the course of the current financial year, we might see the trade agreement with the UK becoming operational and could be the case with the EU as well,” he said, adding that such agreements could improve market access and support exports and investment.
